Third World War
The Third World War commenced on June 21, 1989, following the formal invocation of NATO Article 5 collective defense provisions in response to systematic Soviet attacks on alliance naval and air forces during the Paldiski incident. The conflict represents the first declare direct military confrontation between NATO and Warsaw Pact alliance systems since the formation of both organizations, with active combat operations currently underway across multiple theaters in Northern and Central Europe. Western intelligence assessments indicate the war originated from the February Committee leadership's strategic commitment to preventing NATO intervention in Eastern European suppression operations, culminating in escalatory responses that eliminated diplomatic resolution possibilities.
Background and Outbreak
The current conflict traces its origins to escalating superpower tensions following Operation Sunday, the United States-led military intervention against People's Republic of Sahrani alliance forces in Costa Rica from November 27 to December 3, 1988. The operation resulted in direct combat between US Marines and Soviet VDV personnel, marking the first superpower military clash since the Cuban Missile Crisis and killing 87 Soviet paratroopers. Western intelligence assessments indicate this confrontation fundamentally altered Soviet strategic calculations regarding acceptable levels of US military intervention in regions considered vital to Soviet security interests.
The February Crisis of 1989 emerged directly from military and political opposition to General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev's diplomatic accommodation following Operation Sunday. Defense Minister Dmitri Yazov and other hardline elements within the Soviet military and security apparatus viewed Gorbachev's restrained response to US military action as dangerous weakness that encouraged further Western aggression against Soviet allies and interests. The successful coup that installed the February Committee government reflected broader institutional opposition to policies perceived as undermining Soviet strategic position globally.
The immediate crisis developed from Soviet naval and air attacks against NATO forces conducting humanitarian evacuation operations near Paldiski, Estonia, between June 18-21, 1989. The destruction of HMS Birmingham in international waters, torpedo attacks against Danish civilian shipping, and Soviet air strikes on Norwegian territory created cascading alliance obligations that forced NATO leadership to invoke Article 5 collective defense mechanisms. The Warsaw Pact responded with immediate declaration of defensive war against what Soviet leadership characterized as NATO aggression and interference in internal socialist state affairs.
Western intelligence reports indicate the February Committee government under General Secretary Dmitri Yazov had been preparing for potential superpower confrontation since assuming control following the February Crisis. Soviet military mobilization throughout Eastern Europe during May and June 1989 suggested systematic preparation for comprehensive military operations extending beyond Baltic suppression activities. The speed and coordination of Warsaw Pact military responses to NATO Article 5 invocation indicates advance planning for escalation scenarios rather than reactive decision-making processes.
Intelligence assessments suggest the Yazov administration viewed the Baltic humanitarian crisis as an opportunity to test NATO resolve and demonstrate Soviet commitment to maintaining Eastern European control through decisive military action. The systematic nature of Soviet escalation from territorial water violations to attacks on neutral shipping and NATO territory indicates strategic calculation informed by lessons learned during Operation Sunday regarding Western willingness to employ military force against Soviet interests. The February Committee leadership apparently concluded that accommodation policies had encouraged NATO aggressiveness and that decisive response was necessary to reestablish deterrent credibility.
Baltic Theater Operations
United States Marine Corps forces are currently conducting amphibious assault operations in southern Estonia as part of NATO efforts to establish forward operating bases and support Estonian resistance elements. The USS Nimitz carrier battle group provides air cover and naval gunfire support for Marine Corps landings at multiple sites along the Estonian coast, with particular focus on Hiiumaa Island and adjacent coastal areas of Lääne County.
Soviet Baltic Fleet units maintain active combat operations against NATO naval forces throughout the Baltic Sea region, with particular emphasis on interdicting alliance supply lines and preventing reinforcement of ground forces operating in Estonian territory. The 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade, supported by Category A motor-rifle divisions from the Leningrad Military District, conducts defensive operations against expanding NATO presence while simultaneously maintaining suppression activities against Estonian civilian populations in occupied areas.
British Royal Marines and West German rapid reaction forces provide additional ground combat capability in Baltic operations, coordinating with US Marine Corps units to establish comprehensive NATO presence throughout southern Estonian coastal regions. RAF and USAFE tactical aviation conducts close air support and interdiction missions against Warsaw Pact ground forces, though Soviet air defense systems significantly limit allied air operations effectiveness. Intelligence indicates NATO forces face well-prepared Soviet defensive positions with comprehensive artillery and air defense coverage throughout the operational area.
Central European Front
Warsaw Pact ground forces initiated offensive operations across the Central European front on June 22, with primary emphasis on traditional Fulda Gap approaches toward Frankfurt and Stuttgart. The Soviet 3rd Shock Army, supported by East German and Czechoslovak mechanized divisions, conducted coordinated attacks against NATO forward defense positions along the inter-German border. US Army V Corps and British I Corps elements engage Soviet armor and mechanized infantry formations in what intelligence characterizes as the largest conventional military engagement in European history.
Initial Warsaw Pact advances achieved tactical penetrations of NATO forward defensive positions, though alliance forces successfully conducted fighting withdrawals to prepared secondary defensive lines. Western intelligence estimates Warsaw Pact forces committed approximately 40 divisions to initial Central European operations, representing the largest Soviet military deployment outside national territory since World War II.
NATO tactical nuclear weapons deployment decisions remain under active consultation among alliance leadership, with particular attention to potential Soviet breakthrough scenarios that could threaten strategic rear areas. US Army VII Corps elements deployed from CONUS provide strategic reserve capability, though reinforcement timelines remain subject to ongoing Warsaw Pact air and naval interdiction efforts throughout Atlantic approach routes.
Norwegian Theater
Soviet Northern Fleet forces conducted coordinated amphibious assault operations against Norwegian coastal targets beginning June 23, with primary objectives assessed as securing submarine bases and establishing forward positions for interdicting NATO Atlantic supply lines. The 76th Guards Air Assault Division, supported by naval infantry brigades, conducts operations against Norwegian facilities at Bodø, Andenes, and Bardufoss, seeking to deny NATO use of strategic airfields and establish Soviet presence throughout northern Norwegian territory.
Norwegian armed forces, supported by RAF and USAFE air elements pre-deployed during the crisis period, conduct defensive operations against Soviet airborne and amphibious forces while maintaining coordination with NATO maritime forces operating in Norwegian Sea approaches. Intelligence reports indicate Soviet operations face significant logistical challenges due to extended supply lines and Norwegian terrain characteristics that limit mechanized force employment effectiveness.
The strategic significance of Norwegian operations centers on Soviet objectives to control North Atlantic submarine approach routes and deny NATO air operations capability from Scandinavian bases. Western intelligence assesses that Soviet success in Norwegian operations could significantly complicate NATO reinforcement efforts and provide Warsaw Pact forces with advanced positions for maritime interdiction operations throughout the Atlantic theater.
Naval Operations
Submarine warfare activities have intensified significantly throughout the North Atlantic, with both alliance systems conducting unrestricted submarine operations against military and logistics targets. Western intelligence indicates Soviet submarine forces achieved early tactical successes against NATO shipping, though NATO anti-submarine warfare capabilities have demonstrated effectiveness in limiting Warsaw Pact naval interdiction efforts.
NATO maritime strategy emphasizes maintaining open Atlantic supply routes while supporting amphibious operations in Baltic and Norwegian theaters.